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J. Michael Dennis ll.l., ll.m. Live

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Category Archives: Général / General

Trump will win Republican race

23 Saturday Apr 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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GOP, Republican nomination, Trump

Trump will win the nomination

Against all odds, Trump is on course to wrap up the Republican nomination

As I predicted months ago, Trump is going to be the Republican nominee.

His clear victory in New York on Tuesday April 19 saw him add to previous victories across the South on ‘Super Tuesday’ and in the key states of Florida, Illinois, Arizona and Missouri.

It was already fairly clear he would win the most votes and delegates in New York and the game is now whether he can win a majority of delegates before the July 18-21 Cleveland Republican Convention. A total of 1,237 delegates is required to win the nomination.

Today, with just under 850 delegates on his side, Trump has now won nearly 70 per cent of the delegates he needs to secure the Republican nomination. His closest competitor, Ted Cruz, has not even secure 45 per cent of the 1,237 candidates he would need to win the nomination.

How Trump will secure the Republican nomination

Trump has just fewer than 850 delegates and is about 390 short of the magical number to secure the Republican nomination.

Next Tuesday, April 26, he is set to win around 100 more delegates in Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Pennsylvania.

That would take him to nearly 950 delegates with the possibility of 50 more delegates supporting him if the 50 unbound Pennsylvanian delegates decide to support him.

Then comes the critical state of Indiana on May 3, which uniquely awards all of its 57 delegates to the statewide winner.

If Trump wins Indiana, he will be the republican nominee.

If he does not, considering that he should pick up another 50 delegates in West Virginia, Oregon and Washington in the rest of May, and then sweep all 50 of New Jersey’s while winning 10 in New Mexico on June 7, he still has a very good chance.

That would give him 1,060 if he has not won Indiana or any of Philadelphia’s unbound delegates, and somewhere between 1,100 and 1,150 if he has.

It will all come down to California

California’s 172 delegates will also be in play on June 7.

If Trump wins Indiana and the support of a significant chunk of Philadelphia’s delegates, he could clinch the nomination that day.

Trump is expected to win at least half of California’s 172 and there is a clear possibility that he may win more.

If Trump loses Indiana, he will still end the primary season within 100 delegates of securing the nomination. He will still have 90-95 per cent of the delegates he needs to win the nomination and will just need to win over some of the 200 or so uncommitted delegates to vote on the floor of the Republican convention to be held in July.

The closer Trump gets to 1,237, the more likely these uncommitted delegates will push him over the line.

In other words, the 2016 race is almost certainly going to be Trump vs Clinton.

In such a scenario, the betting markets give Clinton a 72 percent chance to win the Presidential race. Can Trump bridge the gap?

He has six and a half months to defy the odds.

JMD

JMD is an enthusiastic private and public events speaker, writer, syndicated columnist and social activist who most enjoys evolving in complex interactive situations.

jmdlive@live.ca

http://jmdonline.tumblr.com/

http://lefuturistedailynews.com/

http://news.thefuturistdailynews.com/

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Social Media: A tool of Segregation and Ghettoization that Is Ruining Politics

12 Saturday Mar 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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Social media, Trump

social-media

Social networks are out to be more encompassing and controlling, more totalizing, than earlier media ever was.

Emotional appeals can be good for politics. They can spur civic involvement and they can galvanize public attention, focusing it on injustices and abuses of power. But there’s a dark side to social media’s emotionalism. Trump’s popularity took off only after, playing to the public’s frustrations and fears, demonizing Mexican immigrants and it worked.

The fact that experienced politicians are having trouble fitting themselves into the new mold is not unusual. Whenever a new medium upends the game, veteran politicians struggle. They go on playing by the old medium’s rules. They continue to follow the conventions of broadcast TV. They assume that television will establish the campaign’s talking points, package the race as a series of tidy stories and shape the way voters see the contestants. They may have teams of digital representatives tending to their online messaging, but they still view social media as a complement to TV coverage, a means of reinforcing their messages and images, rather than as the campaign’s driving force.

News organizations, too, tend to be slow to adapt to the arrival of a new medium. In the past, television, gave a theatrical rhythm to political campaigns. Each day was an act in a broader drama. Political campaigns were “narratives,” they had “story lines.” Social media is different. There is no narrative; there is no story line. There is no context. As a result, today’s political campaign reports are often out of sync with the public’s opinion and reaction and to events.

As an example, In July 2015, when Trump kicked dirt on John McCain’s reputation saying, “He’s not a war hero, I like people who weren’t captured,” in print and on TV, this comment received ample saturation coverage, but the narrative never advanced and far from apologizing, Trump kept attacking. While the tweets piled up, the public’s attention buzzed to newer things, and the story died even before it became a story. With Social media, we are entering a post-narrative world of campaigning greatly circumscribing and overtaking the power of traditional media in stage-managing political races.

Rather than narrating stories, newscasters are now reading tweets.

The Internet was intended as a participative tool, as a force for democratization. Early digital enthusiasts expected that the web would engender a deeper national conversation. This was absolutely wishful thinking and daydreaming. Already in the early days of the Social networks there were signs that online media were to promote and encourage a restless mob mentality. People were skimming headlines and posts, seeking information to reinforce their biases while rejecting any contrary perspectives and viewpoints contradicting their opinions. Even today and more ever than ever, public information gathering is still further tribalistic than pluralistic. Blog authors and blog readers, even more than ever, are now exclusively gravitating toward digital content that will reinforce their biases, their opinions and convictions. Originally intended to be a force for participation and democratization, the Internet is now the perfect tool for discrimination, segregation and ghettoization.

If there is one thing that the Internet achieved and Social media reinforced, it is the polarizing effect that broadcast media, particularly talk radio and cable news, had been having for many years. Today, Social media is turning out to be more encompassing and controlling, more totalizing, than earlier media ever was. Today, social networks like Facebook, Twitter and Google do not only regulate the messages people receive, they also regulate their responses thus seriously influencing public opinion.

Social networks and media are now shaping the forms of our discourse.

Facebook feeds us with a cascade of messages selected by their News Feed algorithm, and we are provided with a set of prescribed ways to react to each one of these messages. We can click a Like button; share the message with our friends or comment. On Twitter, we can either reply, retweet or favorite and, any thought we express has to fit a tight text limit. Google News also presents us a series of headlines underlining the latest trending stories. It then provides a row of buttons for sharing the headlines either on Google Plus, Twitter or Facebook.

All social networks without exception are now imposing these formal constraints and limitations on what we see, what we read and on how we can respond, none of these restrictions having anything to do with promoting public interest. All these constraints and limitations only reflect the commercial interests of the companies and service providers operating the Social network as well as the specific protocols of their software programming. While the systematic formulaic quality of the Social media is well suited to the chitchat and gossiping that takes place among friends, when applied to politics and the political speech, these same constraints are nothing else than pernicious, inspiring insignificance rather than wisdom and enlightenment.

MD

JMD is an enthusiastic writer, columnist and social activist who most enjoys evolving in complex interactive situations.

jmdlive@live.ca

http://jmdonline.tumblr.com/

http://lefuturistedailynews.com/

http://news.thefuturistdailynews.com/

https://about.me/jmdlive/

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I want to be a writer!

11 Friday Mar 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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Publishing, Writing

Brunette Business woman sitting in an office working on her laptop computer pc with a pen in the hand offer to sign contract, on the table books, paper and notebook isolated on a white background

“Writers have poor career prospects and don’t make a lot of money.”

You want to be a writer! No matter what you are told, don’t believe everything you hear and don’t let anybody discourage you. “Writers have poor career prospects and don’t make a lot of money” is only perception.

You want to write and be a successful writer, just remember this:

The core function of a writer is to create and share information. To have a prosperous and fruitful career, a writer shall provide value that a company or a group of customers are willing to pay for and writers can certainly use their skill of creating and sharing information to provide value.

All those writers that are already using this skill to provide value, either to a company or a group of customers, are making a very good living. The more skillful, the more value provided, and the more money they make.

In other words, whether an individual writer has a successful career has more to do with how they choose to package their writing skills than whether or not the skill of writing itself is valuable.

To write a successful novel and to write a best seller is something else.

JMD

JMD is an enthusiastic writer, columnist and social activist who most enjoys evolving in complex interactive situations.

jmdlive@live.ca

http://jmdonline.tumblr.com/

http://lefuturistedailynews.com/

http://news.thefuturistdailynews.com/

https://about.me/jmdlive/

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Reality Check: You can’t be anything you want to be!

28 Sunday Feb 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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Achievement, Empowerment, Success, Synchronicity

synchronicity-carl-jung

So you want to be an astronaut? Um. Well…

Telling people that they can do anything, whether fueled by imagination or hard work, conceals the critical role of genetics, environment, education, culture, timing and chance in success. Not every everyone who wants to be a neurosurgeon, a sports star or head of state can become one. Dedication and hard work alone will never make it happen.

Success = Talent + Luck.

Great success = A little more talent + A Lot more Luck.

While skill and hard work are a key part of success, chance plays a predominant role. Genetics, environment, education, culture and timing are other essential elements. This can be a bitter pill for those who want to believe that we control our own destiny. Throughout history, it has been demonstrated that all highly successful people were the person with the right stuff, living at the right moment and in the right place. For most of them, it is not to say that they did not work hard or deserve it but none where innately special. Timing and circumstances, opportunities, their environment, the people they knew, their origins is what made them special.

What would have been Moses without a people in need to be saved? What would be Donald Trump without a nation that is full of resentment? When promoting the idea that success is primarily determined by variables within one, we are ignoring the overriding influence of luck and synchronicity in one’s success or achievement. Conversely, those who do achieve prominent success often overestimate their role in it, and have a tendency to see those who have more average resumes as inferior or less deserving. Ignoring the role of chance means that we overvalue the achievements of individual icons and also miss opportunities to use our collective institutions to alleviate inequities.

It is a statistical fact that not everyone can grow up to be a Supreme Court justice, a successful political leader or a best-selling author. Many forces beyond our personal control, forces such as synchronicity, genetics, and other accidents of birth are shaping our individual futures and successes.

JMD

JMD is an enthusiastic writer, columnist and social activist who most enjoys evolving in complex interactive situations.

jmdlive@live.ca

http://jmdonline.tumblr.com/

http://lefuturistedailynews.com/

http://news.thefuturistdailynews.com/

https://about.me/jmdlive/

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Ethiopia: History repeating itself

26 Friday Feb 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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Ethiopia; El Niño; children dying

imrs.php

Ethiopia first burned itself into the West’s collective memory with the horrific famines of 1973 and 1984, when hundreds of thousands starved to death

Today, at a time when international donors are distracted by a string of humanitarian disasters around the world, Ethiopia is in the grip of a devastating drought sparked by the worst El Niño in a generation, and aid agencies warn that food aid could run out as soon as May.

In December, they said about 10.2 million people were in need of $1.4 billion in aid, with 400,000 children severely malnourished. This is in addition to 8 million people supported by the government safety net even before the drought and the worst could be yet to come.

“Now we are begging for rain,” said Raimah Sayyed, 70, as she cuddled her half-naked grandchild and absently tore leaves off a nearby bush and chewed on them. “If the rain comes, everything will be okay.”

Do not help now and we won’t have to wait six months from now to see hungry babies dying on our television screens.

JMD

jmdlive@lefuturistedailynews.com

JMD is a talented Keynote and Motivational Speaker, Writer, Columnist, Public Affairs & Communications Strategist.

https://jmdlive.com/

 

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Beyond All Privacy Rights

20 Saturday Feb 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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Apple, Farook’s phone, San Bernardino shooters

LockedPhone

Apple is strongly objecting to a court’s order stating that the company must help the F.B.I. access the phone of one of the San Bernardino shooters.

What if the government asks us for something we simply do not have, and something we consider too dangerous to create?

Should a back door be built into devices that are used for encrypted communications?

Would that keep us safe from terrorists, or merely make everyone more vulnerable to hackers, as well as to mass government surveillance?

These questions are exactly the one formulated by Apple.

What happens when the government goes to court to demand that you give it something that you do not have? No one has it. It does not exist. What if the government then proceeds to order you to construct, design or invent it?

Must you?

Apple has given significant technical assistance with the San Bernardino case already. Apple gave the F.B.I. the iCloud back-ups for Farook’s phone.

In the past, Apple has helped the government extract information from older iPhones. But there is no way for Apple to do so on the newer iOS 9 operating system, built without a “back door.” There is nothing, no set of instructions that Apple could provide to the F.B.I. or anyone on how to break in into the latest Apple phone.

Can a judge order Apple to come up with a new software bundle that can be loaded onto the phone to take over the operating system?

The judicial system can order you “not to do”. The judicial system can order you to act according to the Law: Do not kill; Stop interfering; Stay away, Stop breaking the law. The judicial system can order you to stop doing something that is against the law but can a judge order you to do something or invent something against your will?

Whatever the moral justification, the mumbo jumbo or legal intellectual masturbation, there is no obligation for anyone to comply with any court order that would go against the law. If the F.B.I. wants to break in Farook’s phone, let them hire a professional hacker to do the work.

Saying that “Apple has the exclusive technical means which would assist the government in completing its search” is a lot of bull.

Judges can tell people to follow the law, but they have to do so in a way that, in itself, respects the law.

JMD

JMD is an enthusiastic writer, columnist and social activist who most enjoys evolving in complex interactive situations.

jmdlive@live.ca

http://jmdonline.tumblr.com/

http://lefuturistedailynews.com/

http://news.thefuturistdailynews.com/

https://about.me/jmdlive/

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Trump: the Ultimate Alpha Male

15 Monday Feb 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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South Carolina Primaries, Trump News

Trump_ The Alpha male

AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

Trump is running an exceptionally visceral campaign.

As Donald Trump’s GOP opponents regroup in South Carolina, they are running into a new political phenomenon: Trump is riding on a wave of adulation. Rarely has a presidential hopeful emerged like Donald Trump, who consistently touts his resume and plans for the nation in sweeping and over-the-top terms.

All politicians like to brag about their abilities and achievements. But Trump is particularly unique in how he talks about himself: “My brain is very sharp, super-genius stuff.’’ “I’m much smarter than you.” “I think I have a much higher IQ.” “I think I went to a better college — better everything.” “I have the world’s greatest memory.” “I’m proud of my net worth. I’ve done an amazing job.” “I’m self-funding my campaign.” “I’m probably the least racist person on Earth.” For many voters, Trump is the ultimate alpha male who says exactly what is on his mind and his appeal is fairly broad in South Carolina where a majority of angry, rural white males feel disadvantaged by the economy and overlooked by the establishment.

Will Trump betray the GOP?

Right now, the GOP establishment is being torn between two conflicting ways of thinking about the clear front runner to be their party’s presidential nominee. The first says that apart from Donald Trump’s chances in a general election, his nomination would be a disaster for conservatism. Having him as the nominee would leave conservatives without a party. The second way of thinking says that while all that may be true, there is little choice but to make peace with the possibility that Trump could be the nominee.

While there is wisdom in acceptance, those verging on panic, have a more accurate assessment of Trump: not only is he not a true conservative, but there is also the possibility that he could betray them even sooner than they think. There is no reason to think that Trump will not turn on a dime the instant he has to face a general electorate, and begin advocating a whole new set of policies. Up to now, during his campaign, he adopted an entirely new set of beliefs, one attuned to what his current audience wants. Trump is not only just xenophobic, but fervently pro-life, pro-gun, pro-God, and pro-whatever else he thinks primary voters want to hear. Unlike other politicians who struggle to explain any hint of contradiction between what they are advocating now and what they’ve advocated before, Trump waves it all away.

Booing Trump during a debate is not a good idea!

Unlike other politicians, Trump seems to have no friends, no allies and no commitments. He is completely stranger to everything that gives any sort of shape and predictability to politics. You say something he does not like: you are dead to him. Any cooperation he shares with anyone is temporary and conditional on him being “treated fairly.” The instant he decides he is not, his former friend becomes his foe. Trump has no real history in conservative or Republican politics and because he is not bothering to court the people and groups who populate the party’s institutions and coalition, he has no promises to keep.

Trump does not care about The Party, and a lot of Republican voters don’t either.

JMD

jmdlive@lefuturistedailynews.com

JMD is a talented Keynote and Motivational Speaker, Writer, Columnist, Public Affairs & Communications Strategist.

https://jmdlive.com/

 

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Farmers will grow what people will buy!

14 Sunday Feb 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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GMO Free, Organic Food, Precision Farming

Genetically_Modified_Foods

Consumers can make more informed choices. (Brennan Linsley/Associated Press)

Making the changes necessary to fix the problems in both our agriculture and in our diets requires a fundamental shift in attitude.

Some of today’s major agricultural problems, such as pollution, greenhouse gases and soil erosion began decades ago, with government incentives that rewarded production of just a few commodity crops.

Here are some suggestions to improve and fix our broken food system:

Develop a worldwide farming best-practices standard

While it is important for producers with a focus on naturalness to find customers, it is not an optimal standard for environmental health. Farmers are experimenting with cover cropping, no-till, precision agriculture and lots of other strategies to reduce runoff, conserve water and cut greenhouse gas emissions. If we can codify best practices and certify the crops of farmers who use them, those farmers can attract customers willing to pay more for foods grown that way.

Move to crop-neutral insurance and subsidizing

Governments are disproportionately subsidizing crops that form the backbone of what public-health experts are telling us to eat less of: processed foods and meats. We should continue to help farmers reduce risk through insurance-premium help, but eliminate the supplemental programs that support commodity crops, primarily corn and soy.

Overhaul our governmental incentive programs

If we want to move away from subsidizing farmers for growing what is not healthful, we should consider the same idea at the consumer level as well. People shall be encouraged to disregard unhealthy foods by providing the customers with governmental incentives to buy healthful foods in their time of need.

Educate Children

While it is very hard to change adults’ habits but not quite as hard to change kids’, we should provide them with information and start them young learning what is good and what is not.

Use sourcing as a selling point

This is beginning to happen, as more companies ask farmers to reduce antibiotic use, let chickens out of cages and eliminate gestation crates, so they can give concerned consumers a way to support those practices.

Label everything

Consumers have aright to know what goes into products, how was their vegetables grown, how were the pigs and chickens treated. Where the products or meat they are buying genetically modified in any way? Were the fruits, vegetables or proteins they are buying treated with disease-resistant or herbicide-tolerant products? The consumer has a right to know.

As a consumer, her is what you should do:

Look for those labels and buy the products that align with your priorities. Create a demand for products grown with best practices.

Get closer to your food: grow something, anything. Plant some herbs in a window box or a tomato plant in a pot. It’s particularly important if you have kids. We all need a reminder that food begins with a plant that turns sunlight into energy.

Spend some time with animals, and you will end up giving more thought to the lives they had before ending in your plate. Raising and killing your own livestock will forever cured you of wasting any part of an animal.

Help our farmers, not the multinationals

Farmers are the interface between planet and people.

No matter what the rest of us do, the environmental impact of farming is in the hands of the people who are actually doing it. Everyone agrees that reducing pollution, safeguarding soil and sequestering carbon are important, but no one knows how to do that on any particular farm, or particular field, better than the farmer.

Governments and consumers have to find a way to give farmers the help they might need to make changes. We need to create and encourage a market for crops and animals raised with attention to the rights of farmworkers, the welfare of animals and the impact on the planet. We need to create a standard that allows farmers to harvest products and raise animals according to higher standards.

One way to achieve this goal would be to stop creating incentives to grow a few commodity crops at as high a capacity as possible, with insufficient attention to environmental repercussions. One other way to achieve this goal would be for the consumers to stop buying these fruits and vegetables, these meat products that are not harvested or raised according to higher standards, health, ecological and environmental considerations.

Remember: Farmers grow what people buy!

JMD

jmdlive@lefuturistedailynews.com

JMD is a talented Keynote and Motivational Speaker, Writer, Columnist, Public Affairs & Communications Strategist.

 

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Trump Power

01 Monday Feb 2016

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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GOP primaries, Iowa, Sanders, Trump News

Trump_The Disrupter

“Despairing white middle-class has long yearned for a white knight to fight for it against the global economic elite.” – Trump is that white knight.

Trump, to enter the race to the GOP nomination, from a billionaire real estate mogul, has entirely reinvented himself and could soon attempt another transformation. In words and deeds, he built his GOP candidacy by antagonizing Latinos and Muslims, immigrants and women, Jews and African-Americans, Asian Americans and the disabled. If he walks away now from his vows to deport 11 million illegal immigrants and to block Muslims from coming into the United States, he would abandon the source of his real political power: the rage of angry despairing white American middle-class.

Trump’s next move will be to capitalize on the outraged and despairing American middle class minorities and ethnic groups. His next story line: “I fight for all of you, I fight for America, I want you and America to be great again, without you, there is no America.” In this scenario, Trump will depict himself as the only one that can successfully fight against the establishment and the global economic elite. The narrative will go like this: “I cannot be bought, I cannot be blackmailed, I know these people, and I was one of them. I was greedy, I am now greedy for you, I am greedy for America, I want to make America great again, and I want to make you great again.”

Starting now, Trump will talk and act as if he was already elected as an assertive and authoritarian president demonstrating true leadership and determination. Instead of bullying and arguing with his opponents, he will ignore them and bring new people under the spotlight with him, people showing leadership and determination, people successful showing resilience with a proven track record demonstrating outstanding performance and results. This will no longer be a popularity contest. This will be the ultimate demonstration of the Trump power.

The question is not if Trump is going to win the nomination of the GOP, Trump will be the Republican nominee. The real question is: whom, from Hilary or Sanders, will Trump have to face for the presidency and can he be successful. The answer to this one is easy: whomever Trump has to face, he will emerge the winner. Facing Sanders would be a closer call but still.

While Trump is a billionaire capitalist turned as a greedy, greedy, greedy socialist and Sanders a self-avowed socialist, both men have tapped into a similar zeitgeist, as Americans are increasingly angry about stagnant incomes and a lack of economic opportunity despite the recovery since the global financial crisis. Trump’s supporters are convinced that he will “make America strong again” while Sanders’ fans believe that he will make the country more equitable for all Americans.

Trump is no longer in the GOP nomination race mood. He is now in the presidential race mood. This is a revolution of the middle class, a revolution of the people. Trump winning Iowa tonight, nobody other than Sanders can stop him.

To be continued…

JMD

jmdlive@lefuturistedailynews.com

JMD is a talented Futurist, Public Affairs & Communications Strategist.

This Blog appears once a week, every Monday with some occasional extra posts once in a while. Click on the “Following” link to get every new posting as soon as its goes live.
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All actualities supporting our propos may be found on our Journal Edition of The Futurist Daily News.
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The radical idea that’s gaining momentum at the Paris climate talks

13 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by JMD Live Online Business Consulting in Général / General

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Climate change, Paris conference

Paris_ Action Now

PARIS — More and more voices at the U.N. climate change conference are standing up for at least trying to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, rather than the more commonly cited 2 degrees C.

It’s a dizzying goal: The world is already at about 1 degrees Celsius of warming, with about 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and concentrations growing by around two parts per million per year on average. Recent research suggests that to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C, concentrations couldn’t exceed about 420 to 440 parts per million by 2100.

The position that 1.5 degrees should be our planetary temperature target has long been held by small island nations and a growing number of developing countries and has now been supported by 108 countries.

Not all countries appear to be on board at this point. Saudi Arabia and India have sought to “block attempts” to make reference, in the final Paris agreement, to a U.N. report that explored the issue of holding warming to 1.5 degrees C, and noted that “limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C would come with several advantages in terms of coming closer to a safer ‘guardrail.

A final decision has not been made on that yet, but there was some very strong resistance from some countries.

Only one thing seems clear: the more the world seriously considers a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the more likely it also is that it will actually stay under 2.

Michel Ouellette JMD

Ouellette JMD LogoKing Global Earth & Environmental Sciences

Read full article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/08/the-radical-idea-thats-gaining-momentum-at-the-paris-climate-talks/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_green

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