There will be no warning

In the fall of 2012, worried about the progress of Iranian nuclear program, the United States and Israel made a common attempt to strengthen their economic and military pressure on Iran. While the United States was increasing its naval presence in the Persian Gulf, Israel was defying the Iranian authorities.

Today, nothing has change and we are still in the dark about a still possible Israeli-Iranian conflict. All what we know is that over the years, Iran made significant progress in developing its own uranium enrichment technology. At the underground Fordo plant, over a thousand centrifuges have been installed, most of them operating at full capacity in September 2012. In August of 2010, the Bushehr nuclear plant was completed and operational. Since then, we assisted to this constant and persistent mutual exchange of threats between Tel Aviv and Tehran.

Over time, many analysts were inclined to think of a possible Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities. It did not happen. If this had happen, the response from Iran would have been devastating.

In May 2011, the former head of Mossad, Meir Dagan warned the Israeli government about a possible doomsday scenario. Dagan did not believe in a possibility of destroying the Iranian nuclear program with a single strike. At the same time, the United States and the allied Western countries had nearly exhausted their entire arsenal of economic sanctions against Iran. Such arsenal of sanctions was renewed in 2012 and the pressure on Damascus maintained.

Since then, we did not hear much from either the Iranian or the Israeli side and the question about the possible nuclear weapons allegedly being secretly developed by Iran is still unclear. Whatever the answer to this question is, I can tell you something: Iran and Israel are no North Korea; Iran and Israel are no Syria! If either one or the other has belligerent thoughts towards one another, we will be the last ones to know.

There will be no warning; there will be no barking; there will be no talk!

JMD